Curated books, videos, and frameworks to build your judgment toolkit
by Daniel Kahneman
Explores the two systems that drive the way we think—System 1 (fast, intuitive) and System 2 (slow, deliberate).
Key Ideas:
When to use:
When you need to understand why you make irrational decisions and how to counteract biases.
by Philip Tetlock
Reveals the art and science of prediction, based on a landmark study of forecasting accuracy.
Key Ideas:
When to use:
When making predictions about uncertain future events or evaluating others' forecasts.
by Chip & Dan Heath
A practical framework (WRAP) for making better choices in life and work.
Key Ideas:
When to use:
When facing important decisions and want a structured approach to avoid common traps.
by Ruth Chang
TL;DR:
Hard choices aren't hard because we're stupid—they're hard because there's no best option.
Key Timestamps:
Try this after watching:
Apply this to a current decision where you feel stuck between two good options.
by Veritasium
TL;DR:
Your brain is lazy by design. Understanding cognitive ease helps you think more deliberately.
Key Timestamps:
Try this after watching:
Notice when you are using System 1 vs System 2 in your next few decisions.
Imagine your project has failed. What went wrong? Work backwards to identify risks.
When it fails:
When the team is too optimistic or when there is pressure to appear confident.
Common traps:
Mini Exercise:
Pick a current project. Assume it failed in 6 months. Write 3 specific reasons why.
Before making predictions, check how often similar things have happened historically.
When it fails:
When the situation is truly unprecedented or when base rate data is not available.
Common traps:
Mini Exercise:
For your next prediction, find the base rate first.
Instead of asking How do I succeed, ask How do I fail. Then avoid those things.
When it fails:
When you need creative solutions, not just risk avoidance.
Common traps:
Mini Exercise:
List 5 ways your current goal could fail. Which ones are you currently risking?
Apply what you have learned with prompts and case studies